Hand of the Week – Week 6

Here’s a quick hand I played on Sunday in the $25,000 guaranteed freezeout.

This event has a great structure: 10,000 chips to start and 15 minute blind levels. And it’s a freezeout as well, so there are no pesky all-in nutjobs forcing you to play weaker hands and rebuy.

Anyway, about two hours in with blinds at 100-200-20 I picked up A♠A♣ on the button. My stack was 13,725. Two black aces, yum yum.

(A lot of opponents have been remarking how lucky I have been getting lately and I must admit I have been hitting an awful lot of flops lately. So it probably won’t surprise them that I got dealt AA – they probably think I get dealt AA every hand. In fact they probably think I get the button every hand to play my aces from as well.)

Now most AA hands play themselves and this was no different, plus it would be boring if I wrote about my AA hands every week. The interesting thing about this hand isn’t that I won a huge pot or suffered a bad beat because neither of those things happened.  What was interesting about this hand was something I noticed when the flop came down.

Anyway, back to the action. The first few players folded and the short stack with 2260 chips raised to 600. Usually a stack this size just smashes all in and so this size raise could spell a huge hand. But he can’t have me beaten can he? I elected just to call because I wanted to get another player into the pot. (Yes, there’s a greater chance of losing with three players in the pot but this particular player could only win 2260 from me so I would only really be worrying about the third player, should he enter the pot).

No-one else called so we were heads up.

The flop was Q♠10♠J

He was first to act and he checked.  I was mightily suspicious of his check. It reeked of a slow play and I was really worried he connected with this flop. Against a big stack I would proceed with extreme caution here because this flop is just too scary.  But when all’s said and done I have an overpair and a gutshot for the nuts. Most importantly he’s only got 1660 chips left.

I put him all in. I’m not folding given our chip stacks and there are loads of cards that make that board even more unpalatable, so I just popped him all in. He called instantly and for a second it confirmed to me he was slow playing me – either a set or AK for the nuts I thought…..

He actually had K♠J♠

This was when I spotted the interesting thing. On Paddy Power it tells you the odds of winning the hand on each street. And there I was – a 48% underdog on the flop. I had AA, he only had a pair and I was not the favourite!

I was correct that he liked the flop alright: middle pair and one overcard, an up and down straight draw and a flush draw. I had to dodge a Jack, a King, a spade, a 9 or an ace!  Talk about connecting with the flop!

Unluckily for him the board bricked twice – 5and 8 and he went out. It’s just disgusting when that happens and you’re on the losing side. I get the hump when I miss a straight draw, let alone a combo mega draw like that.

The exact odds here were actually 48.38% for A♠A♣ and 51.01% for his K♠J♠ with the tie at 0.61%.

That’s what you call “being behind – but in front”.

Or is it “in front – but behind”?

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