We’re talking relegation for today’s poll of the week. This week’s question is: excluding Burnley, which two teams will be relegated from the Premier League this year? Answer this week’s poll and leave a comment with your Twitter username to be in with a chance of winning a token for my Bounty competition.
I reckon I’ve sniffed out some triffic value in the relegation betting market which I’ll go into in a second (can you see where this is heading :) )? People say that 10 or 11 teams could go down this year but I say that’s a load of old cobblers: only five teams are in real danger I reckon.
It pays to be a bit of a contrarian when you have a bet. I’m not suggesting backing Portsmouth to win the FA Cup or Steven Gerrard to win the Balon d’Or or anything like that. When I say “contrarian” I’m thinking more about timing. Often the best time to back a team to do well is after a defeat because this is when their odds get pushed out. If you wade into a team after they just won a match you’ll find you might be getting on at the shortest price they will ever be. I found this to my cost when I jumped on the Leicester bandwagon and backed them to finish in the top 10 at 3-1 after they beat Man Utd 5-3. One point out of a possible 12 later….and they are 6-1. Bad timing. It’s like all those investors who crap themselves when the stock market tanks and sell at the bottom, only to see it recover as soon as they exit. Really they should be pressing up and buying some more at the lows.
The corollary of this is to back a team for relegation after a victory. As we know, QPR beat Aston Villa last night and were pushed out to even money to go down. Even money! They beat Aston Villa but frankly, so what? Villa have lost 5 in a row and failed to score in all of them. They’ve only scored 4 goals all year.
I’ve priced up the 1-X-2 prices for all 290 remaining games and I’ve arrived at these end-of-season points totals: Burnley 29.9, QPR 32.1, Sunderland 38.0, West Brom 38.5, Crystal Palace 39.3, Aston Villa 42.8, Hull 44.1 and Stoke 45.9. QPR need three teams to be worse than them in order to stay up – not just Burnley – and they are still bang in trouble. They have about six points to find with their closest rivals and need not one but two of them to have a ‘mare. The evens has gone but there is plenty of 10/11 about and I reckon they should be closer to 1/3. Their next fixtures are Chelsea away and Man Citteh at home. This price isn’t getting any bigger.
I’m assuming everyone thinks Burnley will go down so I’ve excluding Burnley from the calculations (it also means I’d need about 50 answers if I included them). But I would love it – LOVE IT – if they could get out of this.